1. When did the climate begin to change?
Climate change has already begun. The 1990s were the hottest days in history. Over a period of a century, the average temperature on the surface of the Earth rose by 0.7 degrees Celsius. The rise in sea level by 20 centimeters is due to the melting of bipolar ice floes and the thermal expansion of seawater. Many of the ice peaks in the Alps have begun to melt. In 2003, Europe suffered an unprecedented heat wave that killed 15,000 people in France. This situation will continue: Even the most pessimistic scenario will occur. From a century on now, the average temperature will not rise below 1.4 degrees Celsius.
2. What impact will climate change have on the ecosystem?
Scientists of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change research on climate change have assessed the impact of climate change since 1990 on analysis of 2,500 articles on animals, plants, ice peaks, sea ice, lakes and currents. The result is: Of the 600 species of animals and plants, 450 may have undergone some changes due to warming. In the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, the growth period of many plants has lengthened; the plants of the Alps have migrated to the tops of the mountains; the mortality of animals has increased... Research on 150 ice peaks, sea ice, and freshwater shows that there are hundreds of them. The situation in the area has changed, and it is almost always in the expected direction, that is, the ice is melting.
3. Is there evidence that this change is caused by human activities?
Ten years ago, people just put the risk of climate change as a problem. But today, almost all scientists believe that more and more evidence is enough to prove that human activities are the cause of global warming, and that global warming is caused by the accumulation of large amounts of greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide. The most obvious evidence is the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: According to the concentration index PPM of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, its index has remained at around 270 for 10,000 years, and its index has hovered between 200 and 280 for 400,000 years. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, this index has soared to the present 360, and this index will increase.
4. What is the mechanism of climate warming?
Climatologist Jean-Marc Jean Cowichy pointed out that in 1896, the Swedish chemist Svant Arrhenius had predicted and believed that the increase in the average temperature of the earth was the result of the industrial heavy use of fossil fuels. The basic principle of global warming is much like a greenhouse. The various gases that make up the atmosphere act like a glass cover. The ground is heated by the sun, and 30% of the energy from the light is reflected into the atmosphere by the atmosphere, clouds, and the earth's surface; the rest is absorbed by the air, the ocean, and the ground and turns into heat. The heated ground emits infrared light. Most of the infrared light is received by the greenhouse gases. The air is reheated, and the atmosphere transfers most of the heat to the ground. If the amount of greenhouse gases increases, then the greenhouse effect will also increase. Carbon dioxide from the burning of wood, coal, oil and natural gas is the culprit responsible for the greenhouse effect. The sooner we take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the less impact it will have.
5. How will the future change?
To illustrate this issue, scientists have conceived a series of situations that define several possible patterns of human social development. Stefana, a researcher and environmental economist at the French Meteorological Administration, said: “There may be four major types of situations: First, high-speed industrial growth; Second, globalization and a large number of technology transfer; Third, the market is divided according to the global region Fourth, the tertiary industry and the development of information technology."
Based on these conditions, people analyze the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, and then use a certain climate model to determine the impact of climate warming. However, the results associated with each model also contain some uncertainty. In general, the worst case for the climate is the second, and the most favorable situation is the third. In short, from the perspective of both the situation and the model, by 2100, the global temperature increase ranged from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius. In fact, the warming of the continent is mainly due to the fact that the temperature of the ocean has risen slowly. This shows that the above four scenarios have a relatively small impact on sea level rise. Scientists estimate that sea level rises from 8 to 88 centimeters between now and 2100.
6. Will the warm current stop flowing?
In the North Atlantic, shallow hot water flows northwards. At the same time, cold water in the depths of the ocean flows southwards: this is the "hot salt circulation," which transmits heat to the Arctic, while The main component is the warm current. Changes in the climate may stop the flow of warm currents, causing the climate in Northern Europe and North America to become cold rather than getting warmer. This is the scene in the film "The Day After Tomorrow." There is no pattern at present that shows such a situation from now until 2100.
7. Is there a solution to miracles?
There: Don't burn a little fossil fuel! The more practical point is that all experts emphasized that the most important thing is to control consumption and save energy. In industrialized countries alone, the per capita energy consumption index ranged from 1-3, which indicates that there is a great deal of room for energy conservation. Of course, we can also consider maintaining appropriate levels of consumption while replacing those that cause pollution with alternatives that do not produce a greenhouse effect. These alternatives are: the use of electric transport, mixed-fuel vehicles, hydrogen-powered cars, solar cars ... Then there is the problem of aircraft, it is a big polluter, for its pollution, in the foreseeable future we have hardly found any Alternative approach. In any case, using only clean energy instead of polluting energy, but not reducing energy consumption, is not enough. This is because it takes a long time to replace a polluting energy system with a pollution-free energy system.
8. Is it possible to use nuclear energy?
In France, the choice of nuclear energy is considered as a way to deal with the problem of climate warming. We can consider using the power generated by nuclear power plants to transport cars and so on. In fact, this idea was proposed by France. Its goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 3/40% by 2050. People who came up with this idea have now faced a problem: The problem of how to deal with nuclear waste in the use of nuclear energy, as well as the problems of funds and nuclear proliferation. It seems impossible to massively develop nuclear power by 2050. In addition, it is still unclear whether the reserves of raw materials used for nuclear power generation - uranium and plutonium - are adequate and there are still price problems. In fact, according to various very practical predictions, nuclear energy can only solve the problem of a small part of the greenhouse effect. The Global Association for Scientific Exchange believes that the use of nuclear energy can only reduce the greenhouse effect in France by 16%, and reduce the global greenhouse effect by 11%.
9. Does controlling warming hinder economic development?
From the current efforts, the answer is no doubt: Blair’s economic advisor David King wrote: “From 1990 to 2000, the UK’s total economy grew by more than 30%, employment growth was 4.8%, and greenhouse gas emissions A reduction of 30%, and during this period, all gas emissions have been reduced by 12%.†David is thinking about such a question: reducing gas emissions will not make us even poorer. However, if we want to effectively control the greenhouse effect, we must control consumption, which is against the idea of ​​economic growth at all costs. Is it necessary to abandon the environmental policy? It certainly cannot, because if it is allowed to develop, it will lead to a more serious climate warming. The resulting cost will have an impact on the poor countries and in the long run it will also affect rich countries. This dilemma can only be solved by adopting new technologies that will not pollute the environment. In summary, any environmental policy will take a long time to be effective.
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