This year, the global production of soybeans will decrease year-on-year. Soybean oil supply is tight, and current palm oil, with its low price advantage, will expound the alternatives of Jianwang. By then, the price of palm oil will be filled.
The USDA statement shows that this year's tight supply of oil and fat is a foregone conclusion. In the short term, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil cannot be returned. However, the cheapness of palm oil has given it a price advantage, and the promotion of late-stage alternatives will boost prices.
Uncertainty in palm oil production
On September 10th, the Malay Palm Oil Board MPOB released the latest monthly supply and demand data. In August, its output was 1.663 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous month. However, the decline in output in August was mainly affected by Ramadan. The output of palm oil will reach its peak in September and October, and the monthly output may hit a new high, causing inevitable pressure on the market. The World Meteorological Organization stated in its latest statement that the water temperature of the equator, Cheng Pingyang, is unusually warmer than usual, and has entered the El Niño state and may grow into an El Niño phenomenon. If the phenomenon of El Niño sky weather occurs, Malay and Indonesia, the main palm oil producing country, will be prone to drought and drought, the temperature will decrease, and the proportion of female flowers will be affected. This will reduce the amount of beauty in the next 3 to 6 months. At the same time, the drought will cause palms. The slow development will affect the output. Judging from the temperature of the main producing areas in Malay, the expectation of a decrease in temperature is already being fulfilled, and the sky color will have a greater impact on the production of Malay palm oil.
Macro unlucky gradually fades
Late destocking accelerated
Earlier, the Federal Reserve announced on the interest rate decision, launched the third round of quantitative easing policy QE3, and announced the implementation of delayed ultra-low interest rates at least until mid-2015. This move can be described as "not on the top" to open the gate release. With this favorable urging, the U.S. dollar index has been refreshed for more than four months, and the echo of major commodities has risen. However, with regard to the introduction of QE3, the market also believes that Bernanke is in full swing, and its policy effectiveness is gradually declining. Although Europe also introduced economic stimulus plans, the market is still worried about its economic growth. At the same time, the decline in China's economic growth is also the focus of the market. The market has always waited for China to have a further liberalization policy. However, before the 18-year-old night, the possibility of introducing new stimulus policies is unlikely. Insufficient belief in market choices will weigh on consumer demand for large commodities.
At present, the palm oil supply countries Malay and Indonesia have more pressure on their stocks. According to the latest monthly data from the Malay Palm Oil Board, the country’s inventory growth in August was slightly higher than market expectations. Inventory at the end of August was 2.12 million tons, a 5.8% increase from the previous quarter. Before that, the market estimates that Malay’s inventory in August may jump to 2.08 million tons. Worthy of credit is that palm oil prices are relatively low compared to soybean oil, and post-season palm oil exports are expected to ease production and inventory pressure.
Faced with the pressure of high stocks, Malay and Indonesia encouraged exports by encouraging incentives such as tax cuts, and the export volume increased significantly. The ship's sprouting and visiting agency SGS said on Thursday that Malay's palm oil exports from September 1 to 20 increased by 13% from the same period of last month to 90.05 million tons. Earlier, another shipment was sent to ITS, a budding and visiting agency. Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 20 increased by 14.6% from the same period of last month to 928,100 tons. The progress of the de-stocking of palm oil accelerated in the later period. Malay's palm oil export data in recent months will become the main guideline for the market trend in the latter period.
Since the beginning of this year, China has also undergone a destocking process. Inventory pressure has gradually eased in August, from the original 900,000 tons to the current 600,000 tons. With the approach of the two sectors, the oil market is picking up, sales of terminal small-package oils will increase, and inventory turnover will accelerate, which will also accelerate the consumption of palm oil.
In summary, palm oil production has always arrived in September and October, and the estimated inventory will hit a new high during the year, between 2.21 and 2.26 million tons. This estimate estimates that palm oil production in October was between 1.73 million and 1.76 million tons. In the short term, although the palm oil base will not improve significantly, it will not be too anxious for the current trend. According to the situation of the decrease in the size of the global Beans this year and the current price of palm oil, palm oil has a strong alternative advantage. At present, the fall in palm oil prices has formed, and it is a good entry point for supply.
The USDA statement shows that this year's tight supply of oil and fat is a foregone conclusion. In the short term, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil cannot be returned. However, the cheapness of palm oil has given it a price advantage, and the promotion of late-stage alternatives will boost prices.
Uncertainty in palm oil production
On September 10th, the Malay Palm Oil Board MPOB released the latest monthly supply and demand data. In August, its output was 1.663 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous month. However, the decline in output in August was mainly affected by Ramadan. The output of palm oil will reach its peak in September and October, and the monthly output may hit a new high, causing inevitable pressure on the market. The World Meteorological Organization stated in its latest statement that the water temperature of the equator, Cheng Pingyang, is unusually warmer than usual, and has entered the El Niño state and may grow into an El Niño phenomenon. If the phenomenon of El Niño sky weather occurs, Malay and Indonesia, the main palm oil producing country, will be prone to drought and drought, the temperature will decrease, and the proportion of female flowers will be affected. This will reduce the amount of beauty in the next 3 to 6 months. At the same time, the drought will cause palms. The slow development will affect the output. Judging from the temperature of the main producing areas in Malay, the expectation of a decrease in temperature is already being fulfilled, and the sky color will have a greater impact on the production of Malay palm oil.
Macro unlucky gradually fades
Late destocking accelerated
Earlier, the Federal Reserve announced on the interest rate decision, launched the third round of quantitative easing policy QE3, and announced the implementation of delayed ultra-low interest rates at least until mid-2015. This move can be described as "not on the top" to open the gate release. With this favorable urging, the U.S. dollar index has been refreshed for more than four months, and the echo of major commodities has risen. However, with regard to the introduction of QE3, the market also believes that Bernanke is in full swing, and its policy effectiveness is gradually declining. Although Europe also introduced economic stimulus plans, the market is still worried about its economic growth. At the same time, the decline in China's economic growth is also the focus of the market. The market has always waited for China to have a further liberalization policy. However, before the 18-year-old night, the possibility of introducing new stimulus policies is unlikely. Insufficient belief in market choices will weigh on consumer demand for large commodities.
At present, the palm oil supply countries Malay and Indonesia have more pressure on their stocks. According to the latest monthly data from the Malay Palm Oil Board, the country’s inventory growth in August was slightly higher than market expectations. Inventory at the end of August was 2.12 million tons, a 5.8% increase from the previous quarter. Before that, the market estimates that Malay’s inventory in August may jump to 2.08 million tons. Worthy of credit is that palm oil prices are relatively low compared to soybean oil, and post-season palm oil exports are expected to ease production and inventory pressure.
Faced with the pressure of high stocks, Malay and Indonesia encouraged exports by encouraging incentives such as tax cuts, and the export volume increased significantly. The ship's sprouting and visiting agency SGS said on Thursday that Malay's palm oil exports from September 1 to 20 increased by 13% from the same period of last month to 90.05 million tons. Earlier, another shipment was sent to ITS, a budding and visiting agency. Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 20 increased by 14.6% from the same period of last month to 928,100 tons. The progress of the de-stocking of palm oil accelerated in the later period. Malay's palm oil export data in recent months will become the main guideline for the market trend in the latter period.
Since the beginning of this year, China has also undergone a destocking process. Inventory pressure has gradually eased in August, from the original 900,000 tons to the current 600,000 tons. With the approach of the two sectors, the oil market is picking up, sales of terminal small-package oils will increase, and inventory turnover will accelerate, which will also accelerate the consumption of palm oil.
In summary, palm oil production has always arrived in September and October, and the estimated inventory will hit a new high during the year, between 2.21 and 2.26 million tons. This estimate estimates that palm oil production in October was between 1.73 million and 1.76 million tons. In the short term, although the palm oil base will not improve significantly, it will not be too anxious for the current trend. According to the situation of the decrease in the size of the global Beans this year and the current price of palm oil, palm oil has a strong alternative advantage. At present, the fall in palm oil prices has formed, and it is a good entry point for supply.
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